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Wednesday, January 30, 2019

State of Texas' New Attempt to Suppress Hispanic Vote

Teas claims of voter fraud are really attempt to suppress Hispanic vote

from the Article:

"This latest (and likely erroneous) claim from Texas is part of a larger pattern of vote suppressors making outlandish claims of voter fraud – only to have them thoroughly and exhaustively debunked. It would be funny if such claims weren’t being used to deprive eligible citizens of their right to vote."
First, let’s examine what exactly Texas Secretary of State David Whitley did to come up with his exaggerated numbers. He has yet to provide much more than a breathless statement to the press, but we do know he compiled his list of supposed non-citizens by comparing driver’s license application records against the state’s voter registration database. We’ve seen this game before. Here’s why it doesn’t pass the smell test:
  1. It is very likely that many if not most of these people became naturalized citizens since the last time they renewed their driver’s license.
  1. Large-scale database matching has been proven to be notoriously unreliable.
  1. Similar claims made by states in the past—including Texas—have been debunked.
Point one: the data Whitley used only shows if someone wasn’t a citizen the last time they renewed their driver’s license. But Texans only have to renew their licenses every six years. And since 55,000 Texans take the oath of citizenship every year, it stands to reason that many of these phantom non-citizen voters are now citizens. In fact, according to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, there were 348,552 Texans naturalized in the last six years. So even if we assume that all of the matches made by the Secretary of State are accurate, it is likely that many if not all of the 95,000 people identified have since been naturalized.

Thursday, January 24, 2019

Stats on Illegals and Crime

Image result for children of illegal immigrants
Dangerous criminals plot their next move


I researched this and wrote it at the early begging of Trump's run in 2015 but it is not out of date.




I've seen right wing activist blogs allude to this Washington Examiner story by  Paul Bedard  2/22/16 12:01 AM :
Almost 90,000 dangerous illegal immigrants go free

"Nearly 60 percent of illegal immigrants identified by the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement as criminal threats are not deported and are eventually released, the latest example of the Obama administration's failed immigration policy."
152,393 illegal immigrants labeled a criminal threat, mostly in jails, but charged 64,116. About another 88,000 were not processed for deportation, according to the Center for Immigration Studies' Jessica Vaughan. The numbers are even worse for those who ICE asks local police and sheriffs to detain but never collect.[1]
First of all notice it doesn't say what level of crime we are talking about. It says "labeled a criminal threat" not charged with serious crimes, nor does it say why they were let go (perhaps because they were not dangerous). Who did the labeling? The police? The muckrakers writing the article? Or Donald Trump? "libeled" not charged!

USA  Today runs a story "How violent are undocumented immigrants?"
Undocumented immigrants who are valedictorians of their high schools classes are held up against those who are members of brutal street gangs. Undocumented immigrants either help local economies flourish or bleed them dry. They're either hard-working, law-abiding members of society simply trying to improve their lot in life, or job-stealing opportunists who are holding Americans back
Only a tiny percentage of the nation’s violent crimes are handled by the federal court system. Yes, undocumented immigrants accounted for 9.2% of federal murder convictions in 2013, but that represents a grand total of eight murder cases. When you consider that the FBI estimates there were 14,196 murders in the U.S. in 2013, those few cases handled by the federal court system don’t quite register as a reliable sample set.
The same goes for the other violent crimes cited in those statistics. Add the fact that undocumented immigrants are far more likely to be caught up in the federal court system because of non-violent immigration violations, and the numbers shouldn't mean much.
But when updated data for 2014 were released last week, largely mirroring the previous year's figures, many pounced on them as proof of rampant crime by undocumented immigrants. Rep. Mo Brooks, R-Ala., cited the data in a column last week, and the numbers received prominent coverage by conservative outlets such as Breitbart..[2]

Statistics from the American Immigration council shows that between 1990 and 2010 foreign born portion of population in U.S. increased by 12.9%. That's legal and illegal. In that same period the number of  illegalsv grew from 3 to 11.2 million."During the same period, FBI data indicates that the violent crime rate declined 45 percent {Figure 3} and the property crime rate fell 42 percent {Figure 4}." [3]


 photo figure_3_zpsz1hwskk9.jpg

Fig. 4
  • The decline in crime rates was not just national, but also occurred in border cities and other cities with large immigrant populations such as San Diego, El Paso, Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, and Miami.
  • According to a 2008 report from the conservative Americas Majority Foundation, crime rates are lowest in states with the highest immigration growth rates.
    • From 1999 to 2006, the total crime rate declined 13.6 percent in the 19 highest-immigration states, compared to a 7.1 percent decline in the other 32 states.
    • In 2006, the 10 “high influx” states—those with the most dramatic, recent increases in immigration—had the lowest rates of violent crime and total crime.
Nationwide, Immigrants are Five Times Less Likely to be in Prison Than the Native-Born
  • A 2007 study by University of California, Irvine, sociologist RubĂ©n G. Rumbaut, found that for every ethnic group, without exception, incarceration rates among young men are lowest for immigrants, even those who are the least educated. This holds true especially for the Mexicans, Salvadorans, and Guatemalans who make up the bulk of the undocumented population.
    • The 3.5 percent incarceration rate for native-born men age 18-39 was five times higher than the 0.7 percent rate for immigrant men in 2000{Figure 5}. Among male high-school dropouts, 9.8 percent of the native-born were behind bars in 2000, compared to only 1.3 percent of immigrants.
    • In 2000, 0.7 percent of foreign-born Mexican men and 0.5 percent of foreign-born Salvadoran and Guatemalan men were in prison. Among male high-school dropouts, 0.7 percent of foreign-born Mexicans and 0.6 percent of foreign-born Salvadorans and Guatemalans were behind bars in 2000.[4]
There are around 11 million undocumented workers, figures from Pew research center 177,960 undocumented aliens convicted and deported according to Immigration and Customs;. It doesn't say what they are convicted of and immigrants who have the slightest brush with the law can be put in this category.[5]


Sources
[1]  Paul Bedard, " 90,000dangerous illegals go free," Washington Examiner , 2/22/16 12:01 AM :
 http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/almost-90000-dangerous-illegal-immigrants-go-free/article/2583597
[2]Alan Gomez, How violent are undocumented immigrants?" USA TODAY 7:58 p.m. EDT July 16, 2015
 http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/07/16/voices-gomez-undocumented-immigrant-crime-san-francisco-shooting/30159479/
[3] American Immigration Council "From Anecdotes To Evidence: Setting the Record Straight" Thursday July 26, 2013.
http://www.immigrationpolicy.org/just-facts/anecdotes-evidence-setting-record-straight-immigrants-and-crime-0
American immigration council is a non propjet:
http://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/mission
their statement:
based in Washington D.C.  Our legal, education, policy and exchange programs work to strengthen America by honoring our immigrant history and shaping how Americans think and act towards immigration now and in the future.
The American Immigration Council exists to promote the prosperity and cultural richness of our diverse nation by:
  •  Educating citizens about the enduring contributions of America’s immigrants. 
  • Standing up for sensible and humane immigration policies that reflect American values.   
  • Insisting that our immigration laws be enacted and implemented in a way that honors fundamental constitutional and human rights. 
  • Working tirelessly to achieve justice and fairness for immigrants under the law. 
Our motto is: Honoring our immigrant past; shaping our immigrant future.
[4] Ibid.



Wednesday, January 9, 2019



Democrats take the House, Republicans gain seats in the Senate

On Tuesday, Democrats won control of the House of Representatives — and, with it, the ability to check President Trump’s power.
Republicans, however, performed strongly among the group of Senate seats up that were on the ballot, and expanded their majority in the chamber.
GOP
199

US HOUSE

Updated Nov 19, 2018, 5:11pm EST
DEM
232
218
GOP
52

SENATE

Updated Nov 19, 2018, 5:11pm EST
DEM
47
50
Now that Democrats have won the House, Republicans will no longer be able to pass legislation with GOP votes alone — instead, to get any bills through Congress, Trump will have to spar with Democrats. The new Democratic majority will also have subpoena power, which will help them investigate the Trump administration far more aggressively.
But since Democrats did not take the Senate, they did not gain the power to block Trump’s Supreme Court, Cabinet, and other nominees for the next two years. So Trump will continue to have the upper hand in confirming judges to lifetime posts.