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Monday, January 8, 2018

How many illegal aliens really commit dangerous crimes?


Image result for metacrock's blog illegals aliens and crime




This article was written way back at the beginning Trump's campaign in 2015, it's still relevant statistically, The rhetoric of Trump about illegal immigration is a lie,
I've seen right wing activist blogs allude to this Washington Examiner story by  Paul Bedard  2/22/16 12:01 AM :
Almost 90,000 dangerous illegal immigrants go free

"Nearly 60 percent of illegal immigrants identified by the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement as criminal threats are not deported and are eventually released, the latest example of the Obama administration's failed immigration policy."
152,393 illegal immigrants labeled a criminal threat, mostly in jails, but charged 64,116. About another 88,000 were not processed for deportation, according to the Center for Immigration Studies' Jessica Vaughan. The numbers are even worse for those who ICE asks local police and sheriffs to detain but never collect.[1]
First of all notice it doesn't say what level of crime we are talking about. It says "labeled a criminal threat" not charged with serious crimes, nor does it say why they were let go (perhaps because they were not dangerous). Who did the labeling? The police? The muckrakers writing the article? Or Donald Trump? "libeled" not charged!

USA  Today runs a story "How violent are undocumented immigrants?"
Undocumented immigrants who are valedictorians of their high schools classes are held up against those who are members of brutal street gangs. Undocumented immigrants either help local economies flourish or bleed them dry. They're either hard-working, law-abiding members of society simply trying to improve their lot in life, or job-stealing opportunists who are holding Americans back
Only a tiny percentage of the nation’s violent crimes are handled by the federal court system. Yes, undocumented immigrants accounted for 9.2% of federal murder convictions in 2013, but that represents a grand total of eight murder cases. When you consider that the FBI estimates there were 14,196 murders in the U.S. in 2013, those few cases handled by the federal court system don’t quite register as a reliable sample set.
The same goes for the other violent crimes cited in those statistics. Add the fact that undocumented immigrants are far more likely to be caught up in the federal court system because of non-violent immigration violations, and the numbers shouldn't mean much.
But when updated data for 2014 were released last week, largely mirroring the previous year's figures, many pounced on them as proof of rampant crime by undocumented immigrants. Rep. Mo Brooks, R-Ala., cited the data in a column last week, and the numbers received prominent coverage by conservative outlets such as Breitbart..[2]

Statistics from the American Immigration council shows that between 1990 and 2010 foreign born portion of population in U.S. increased by 12.9%. That's legal and illegal. In that same period the number of  illegalsv grew from 3 to 11.2 million."During the same period, FBI data indicates that the violent crime rate declined 45 percent {Figure 3} and the property crime rate fell 42 percent {Figure 4}." [3]



Fig. 4
  • The decline in crime rates was not just national, but also occurred in border cities and other cities with large immigrant populations such as San Diego, El Paso, Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, and Miami.
  • According to a 2008 report from the conservative Americas Majority Foundation, crime rates are lowest in states with the highest immigration growth rates.
    • From 1999 to 2006, the total crime rate declined 13.6 percent in the 19 highest-immigration states, compared to a 7.1 percent decline in the other 32 states.
    • In 2006, the 10 “high influx” states—those with the most dramatic, recent increases in immigration—had the lowest rates of violent crime and total crime.
Nationwide, Immigrants are Five Times Less Likely to be in Prison Than the Native-Born
  • A 2007 study by University of California, Irvine, sociologist Rubén G. Rumbaut, found that for every ethnic group, without exception, incarceration rates among young men are lowest for immigrants, even those who are the least educated. This holds true especially for the Mexicans, Salvadorans, and Guatemalans who make up the bulk of the undocumented population.
    • The 3.5 percent incarceration rate for native-born men age 18-39 was five times higher than the 0.7 percent rate for immigrant men in 2000{Figure 5}. Among male high-school dropouts, 9.8 percent of the native-born were behind bars in 2000, compared to only 1.3 percent of immigrants.
    • In 2000, 0.7 percent of foreign-born Mexican men and 0.5 percent of foreign-born Salvadoran and Guatemalan men were in prison. Among male high-school dropouts, 0.7 percent of foreign-born Mexicans and 0.6 percent of foreign-born Salvadorans and Guatemalans were behind bars in 2000.[4]
There are around 11 million undocumented workers, figures from Pew research center 177,960 undocumented aliens convicted and deported according to Immigration and Customs;. It doesn't say what they are convicted of and immigrants who have the slightest brush with the law can be put in this category.[5]
 Here is a more recent article that backs me up
 https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-02-21/the-myth-of-the-u-s-immigration-crisis


Sources
[1]  Paul Bedard, " 90,000dangerous illegals go free," Washington Examiner , 2/22/16 12:01 AM :
 http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/almost-90000-dangerous-illegal-immigrants-go-free/article/2583597
[2]Alan Gomez, How violent are undocumented immigrants?" USA TODAY 7:58 p.m. EDT July 16, 2015
 http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/07/16/voices-gomez-undocumented-immigrant-crime-san-francisco-shooting/30159479/
[3] American Immigration Council "From Anecdotes To Evidence: Setting the Record Straight" Thursday July 26, 2013.
http://www.immigrationpolicy.org/just-facts/anecdotes-evidence-setting-record-straight-immigrants-and-crime-0
American immigration council is a non propjet:
http://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/mission
their statement:
based in Washington D.C.  Our legal, education, policy and exchange programs work to strengthen America by honoring our immigrant history and shaping how Americans think and act towards immigration now and in the future.
The American Immigration Council exists to promote the prosperity and cultural richness of our diverse nation by:
  •  Educating citizens about the enduring contributions of America’s immigrants. 
  • Standing up for sensible and humane immigration policies that reflect American values.   
  • Insisting that our immigration laws be enacted and implemented in a way that honors fundamental constitutional and human rights. 
  • Working tirelessly to achieve justice and fairness for immigrants under the law. 
Our motto is: Honoring our immigrant past; shaping our immigrant future.
[4] Ibid.


Friday, January 5, 2018

Republicans Prepare to Gut Social Security

One Fifth of Social Security Beneficiaries Receive Disability or Young Survivors Benefits




A huge number of elderly people and others depend for their very lives upon social security,  While fact checker says Trump did not say he has a moral obligation to cut Social security. (According to Snopes.com, but they go on to discuss plans to scuttle it by Sam Johnson ranking Republican on ways and means committee).There are several ways it is endangered by the Republican agenda,



Fact Sheet by Social Security Administration

https://www.ssa.gov/news/press/factsheets/basicfact-alt.pdf

In 2016, nearly 61 million Americans will receive approximately $918 billion in Social Security benefits. 
Snapshot of a Month: June 2016 Beneficiary Data ο Retired workers 40.7 million $55 billion $1,348 average monthly benefit dependents 3 million $2 billion ο Disabled workers 8.9 million $10.3 billion $1,166 average monthly benefit dependents 1.9 million $0.7 billion ο Survivors 6.1 million $6.8 billion  
Social Security is the major source of income for most of the elderly. 

Nearly nine out of ten individuals age 65 and older receive Social Security benefits. ο Social Security benefits represent about 34% of the income of the elderly. ο Among elderly Social Security beneficiaries, 48% of married couples and 71% of unmarried persons receive 50% or more of their income from Social Security. ο Among elderly Social Security beneficiaries, 21% of married couples and about 43% of unmarried persons rely on Social Security for 90% or more of their income.  
Social Security provides more than just retirement benefits. 
 ο Retired workers and their dependents account for 71% of total benefits paid. ο Disabled workers and their dependents account for 16% of total benefits paid.  About 90 percent of workers age 21-64 in covered employment in 2016 and their families have protection in the event of a long-term disability.  Just over 1 in 4 of today’s 20 year-olds will become disabled before reaching age 67.  67% of the private sector workforce has no long-term disability insurance. ο Survivors of deceased workers account for about 13% of total benefits paid.  About one in eight of today’s 20-year-olds will die before reaching age 67.  About 96% of persons aged 20-49 who worked in covered employment in 2016 have survivors insurance protection for their young children and the surviving spouse caring for the children.
Read More

SS also gives life insurance and disability

http://www.cbpp.org/research/social-security/policy-basics-top-ten-facts-about-social-security

About 60 million people, or more than one in every six U.S. residents, collected Social Security benefits in June 2016.  While older Americans make up about four in five beneficiaries, another one-fifth of beneficiaries received Disability Insurance (DI) or were young survivors of deceased workers.In addition to Social Security’s retirement benefits, workers earn life insurance and DI protection by making Social Security payroll tax contributions:
  • About 96 percent of people aged 20-49 who worked in jobs covered by Social Security in 2015 have earned life insurance protection through Social Security.
  • For a young worker with average earnings, a spouse, and two children, that’s equivalent to a life insurance policy with a face value of over $600,000, according to Social Security’s actuaries.
  • About 90 percent of people aged 21-64 who worked in covered employment in 2015 are insured through Social Security in case of severe disability.
The risk of disability or premature death is greater than many realize.  Some 6 percent of recent entrants to the labor force will die before reaching the full retirement age, and many more will become disabled.


AARP has an excellent fact sheet on  who is dependent upon social security. They make the point that it is funded for another 24 years. The idea that we need to wipe it out or cut back now to save it is nonsense,

Social Security Benefits Are Fully Funded for Another 24 Years. The Social Security trust funds have accumulated more than $2.6 trillion in assets, and their value is estimated to peak at $3.7 trillion in 2022. After that year, the trust funds assets will begin to be drawn down in order to pay full benefits. Beginning in 2036, according to the Social Security trustees, the Social Security trust funds will be exhausted. Without any changes, Social Security

read more

Despite the immediate soundness of the program, into which most America s have paid throughout their lives, Republicans can't wait to gut it and there are several ways it is endangered, Even though Trump himself did not say, his movement helped build the congressional support and it;s certain will not block their moves to gut the program,




reps plan to gut
http://www.motherjones.com/contributor/2016/12/republicans-want-to-cut-social-security



Josh Marshall warns, "Republicans apparently aren't going to be satisfied with phasing out Medicare. They're going to try to pass huge cuts to Social Security this year too. Not Bush-style partial phaseout but just big, big cuts. And you're out of luck even if you're a current beneficiary. "
The Washington Examiner describes it thusly:
The bill…would reduce costs by changing the benefits formula to reduce payments progressively for high earners. It would also gradually raise the full retirement age from 67 to 69 for people who are today 49 or younger. Lastly, it would change the inflation metric used to calculate benefits to one that shows lower inflation, essentially slowing the growth in benefits, and eliminate cost of living adjustments for high earners.

If the left leaning Mother Jones is too radical consider the extremely conservative and highky repected source Forbes magazine,
This blog is about financial deceptions, swindles and costly untruths.
Dec 14,2016

The latest GOP proposal, which flies in the face of Donald Trump's campaign promises to protect the program, is more of the same. Cut benefits and harm retirees who depend upon it.
Although arguably the GOP plan could put more money back into the Social Security Trust Fund, it does so at an extreme cost. And since there are other funding alternatives, it's a cruel way to save the program.


forbes gop ss cuts will hurt You

Here's how the GOP cuts would work, according to the Center for American Progress, a progressive think tank:
-- Workers making around $50,000 would see checks shrink by between 11% and 35%.
-- The first year for receiving full benefits would climb to 67.
-- Nearly every income bracket would see a reduction, save for the very bottom.
-- People making around $12,280 in 2016 who have worked for 30 years would see an increase of around 20%.
-- But young people making the same amount would be hit hard by the changes. If they had 14 years of work experience by 2016, they would see their benefits cut in half.
-- The plan would also cut entirely cost of living adjustments (COLA) for retirees earning above $85,000.
That last item on killing the COLA would hurt the most. Keep in mind that Social Security is the only government retirement benefit that adjusts payments based on inflation. If the cost of living goes up, you can keep up with rising prices -- somewhat.
There is no COLA for 401(k) or IRA withdrawals. And private, inflation-adjusted annuities are the exception, not the rule.
Moreover, there's a better way of funding Social Security, which will begin to trim payments in 2034 if nothing is done. Simply raise the earnings cap subject to Social Security taxes, which is set artificially low at $118,000.
more

see also CBS news article on cuts

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/gop-social-security-funding-plan-cuts-benefits/




list of things you can do on twitter for political action to be part of the resistance,

https://twitter.com/slpng_giants/status/809563352204591105


Call your Congressman!

I saw on facebook someone said "I am not going to ask them for anything," but that is self defeating. Not only is it our right (they are supposedly there to represent us) but is is also one of the most effective things we can do, even if we don't expect them to listen, It's a great organizing tool and get';s people involved and it can be effective, There was a point in 19989 when the government almost invaded Nicaragua, we put up a massive effort of contracting congress and they backed down,


* Although you may find it easiest to always call the Capitol switchboard at 202-224-3121 to reach your senators or representative, you can also find the direct number to any member's office by consulting the Senate phone list or House phone list.


Tips on Calling Your Member of Congress

When you dial 202-224-3121 you are directed to an operator at the Capitol switchboard. This switchboard can direct you to both senators as well as representatives.
Once the operator answers, ask to be connected to whomever you are trying to reach. They will send you to your senator's or representative's office line, and a legislative assistant will answer the phone.
It is important to let them know why you are calling and what issue you are calling about. You will sometimes be able to speak directly to your senator or representative, but more often you will speak to a staff person in the member's office. This person keeps track of how many people called and their positions on issues, and provides a summary to the member. Be assured that your call does count, even if you are not able to speak directly to your senator or representative.
It is usually most effective to call your own senators and representatives, as each is primarily concerned with residents from his or her district. However, you may occasionally find it useful to call other members, if they are on a certain committee or in a particular position to help get a bill passed.
* Although you may find it easiest to always call the Capitol switchboard at 202-224-3121 to reach your senators or representative, you can also find the direct number to any member's office by consulting the Senate phone list or House phone list.

Friday, December 22, 2017

Trump Balance Sheet: What Trump costs us in Lives





factually quantifiable harms already accrued as result of Trump's attack on civilization

*13 million lose health care due to Tax scam


* 13 thousand /year die from air pollution due to roll back of regs on coal fired plants
(Trump's war on breathing: Resistance is not Futile)


*50,000 lives / year lost due to roll back auto emission stadards
(Ibid, see also "Trump  has started the roll back" the Guardian)

* Roll backs on regs that protect drinking water for 117 million
("Trump wrecks nation's clean water," Resistance...)


*cut food and formula for nearly 390,000 participating women, children and infants.()
  1. Proposed slashing the WIC program. President Trump’s proposal to slash funding for the WIC program puts basic food security at risk for thousands of families. At an annual food cost of about $513 per person, the $200 million cut could help pay for a year’s worth of food and formula for nearly 390,000 participating women, children and infants. (100 ways 100 days; center for American Progress)


* 600 lives and prevent more than 900 new cases of silicosis each year.
After more than four decades of development, this rule would protect construction and manufacturing workers from inhaling silica, which can lead to lung cancer, silicosis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and kidney disease. It was projected to save more than 600 lives and prevent more than 900 new cases of silicosis each year.
(Ibid)

*Tried to cut his own taxes by millions of dollars while taking health insurance from tens of millions of Americans. Based on President Trump’s leaked 2005 Tax Return Form 1040, repealing the ACA could give Trump a personal tax cut of more than $2 million. At the same time, the House legislation to repeal the ACA would have taken health insurance from 24 million Americans.


* ended Amnesty for 800,000 immigrants ("dreamers") who have been in country since childhood will lead to mass deportations (NBC News)


* sets precedent for destruction of civil rights
After barely eight months in office, President Trump has secured his legacy: If left unchecked, he will undermine civil rights progress in this country more than any president in modern history.
This week has shown previews of this dangerous agenda. And not for the reasons you’re thinking.
While Trump’s back and forth on whether he would condemn the white supremacist groups behind the deadly tragedy in Charlottesville lent the weight of the United States presidency to a racist worldview, we must also focus on the series of actions that prove those remarks are already being translated into an equally oppressive policy agenda.Since beginning his campaign, Trump has fanned the flames of racism, bigotry, and xenophobia – from calling Mexicans rapists, making a border wall one of his central campaign promises, implementing a Muslim travel ban, and using dog-whistle politics to talk in veiled terms about black communities. (The Hill)
* Potential loss of all life on Earthy due to global warming since Trup callsit ahoax and took us outof Paris accords, (see my research on Metacorck's blog)

see the full list of the Center for American progress, 100 ways in 100 days Trump has hurt America,

* Trump DOJ (Sessions) return ti debeter's prisions,Itps illegal to be poor! (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/28/opinion/sessions-says-to-courts-go-ahead-jail-people-because-theyre-poor.html?mtrref=l.facebook.com&assetType=opinion

There are debter's prisons. Deters prsions! that;s eighth century! Trump DOJ supports it1 It's acrime to be poor)
Last week, Attorney General Jeff Sessions retracted an Obama-era guidanceto state courts that was meant to end debtors’ prisons, where people who are too poor to pay fines are sent. This practice is blatantly unconstitutional, and the guidance had helped jump-start reform around the country. Its withdrawal is the latest sign that the federal government is retreating from protecting civil rights for the most vulnerable among us....Ferguson [Mo.] used its criminal justice system as a for-profit enterprise, extracting millions from its poorest citizens. Internal emails revealed the head of finance directing policing strategy to maximize revenue rather than ensure public safety. Officers told us they were pressured to issue as many tickets as possible.Even the local judge was in on it, imposing penalties of $302 for jaywalking and $531 for allowing weeds to grow in one’s yard. He issued arrest warrants for residents who fell behind on payments — including a 67-year-old woman who had been fined for a trash-removal violation — without inquiring whether they even had the ability to pay the exorbitant amounts. The arrests resulted in new charges, more fees and the suspension of driver’s licenses. These burdens fell disproportionately on African-Americans.


Thursday, December 21, 2017

The True Test of the Tax Scam

Republican point man talking head on CBS This morning, this morning, saying that we will see very quickly if people get more money in their pay check That's their line. yes you will get some more money maybe as much as 2000$ for the year, That's going to make everyone say it worked,it was good it;s success, Trump is great! But is that really any thing more then selling your birth right for one meal?

Like Jacob and Essay in the Bible they expect the Americanv voter to tell their birthright for one bowl of protege then be forever slaves to Trump's fascism For 2000$! While the gulf between rich and poor grows exponentially, The Republicans and other expositors have stated the personal tax rates will go back after a few years, The corporate rates wont, So it;/skusta small rarebit in a sense but it creates the sense that it proves Trump is true.

Getting some money back in pay checks us not going to prove that companies are investing labor intensive industry or updating their operations., That is the real test, Without that all all they've done is massively increase the deficit gut social programs and give the rich the greatest rip off of the average person in history,

GOP propaganda shows they still rely on trickle down to fix the deficient caused by the tax scam. Trickle down does not work. They will not invest in labor intensive areas, Surveys indicate CEO's already contemplating how to spend the tax money are not planning on investigating in labor,
Republicans are liars. they are liars they have no regard for the people.

Friday, December 1, 2017

Call Now!




We have to beat this Tax scam now today! the Votes today,It was going to pass yesterday and thank God (answer to my prayer) some deficit Hawks started making noise,
The bill will raise the deficit a trillion dollars then hope that it stimulates growth and we out grow, When has outgrowing the deficit ever worked? That's a huge gamble, If it doesn't work it will take down medicaid and other social programs, Riders in back that will destroy Obama care, it also has riders that destroy public lands, This is the most important thing the resistance can do,please stop everything NOW and call, share this with everyone.
CALL YOUR MEMBER OF CONGRESS 202-224-3121
Republican Senators* at (844) 241-1141

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Trump' FCC Plans Destruction of Net Neutrality


This is a disaster, It would be bad enough if raising fees to use the net meant I can't read comic books or looking at little You Tube things,No more music,That's my  major connection to the music I love. But the move means much more than curtailment of pleasure surfing,It's the blow to the resistance,Its closing of the only sources of information for countering Trump's lies and it's the only way to fight by spreading the word, Also for me it means no more books. No more blog n o more theological research,

We only have until early December to act!

ALYSSA NEWCOMB "THE END IS NEAR FOR OBAMA ERA NEW NEUTRALITY RUELES," NBC NEWS
(NOV 21 2017, 4:51 PM ET)
 https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/end-near-obama-era-net-neutrality-rules-n822901

Everything from the way you use banking apps to the speed of your Netflix stream could soon be changing, if all goes to plan for the Federal Communications Commission.
The FCC's mission — essentially gutting the internet as we know it — would allow service providers to create so-called fast and slow lanes for subscribers.
Commission Chairman Ajit Pai, a Republican, announced on Tuesday a plan to put an end to what he called the federal government's "micromanaging" of the internet. Details of the proposal will be released on Wednesday, three weeks before it will be put to a vote by the FCC on Dec. [read More]

SIGN PETITION tell congress
https://savethenetfromtrump.com/

CALL YOUR MEMBER OF CONGRESS 202-224-3121
Republican Senators* at (844) 241-1141 

Share this on social media put it on your blog,send links, Tell everyone, this is a disaster, This will kil all resistance to Trump, this is nothing less than control of the media,




[1] 
[2] ALYSSA NEWCOMB "THE END IS NEAR FOR OBAMA ERA NEW NEUTRALITY RUELES," NBC NEWS
(NOV 21 2017, 4:51 PM ET)
 https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news/end-near-obama-era-net-neutrality-rules-n822901

Friday, November 10, 2017

Has Trump saved the economy? NO!


U.S. job creation 2008-2012 (BLS)



On CBS this Morning (this morning--Nov. 10,3017) a focus group with Trump supporters revealed that every one of them redirected the propaganda  line that Trump has saved the economy. They really believe that Trump's deregulation and his confidence has created the upturn in the stock market and that created the upsurge in employment, this is manifest bunk, Back in 2012 I read prediction that two million jobs would be added to the economy over the next few years, Jobs are indicative of a growing healthy economy,Let's look at some of those predictions:


Obama battles job crisis


These are old articles showing the projected job increase expected before Trump even ran all accesed Nov 7 2017

"The White House Predicts 2 million more jobs in 2012"
 @CNNMoney February 17, 2012: 4:41 PM ET
http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/17/news/economy/obama_job_creation/index.htm

"New forecasts from the Council of Economic Advisers estimate 2 million jobs will be added in 2012."

The document, which totals 446 pages, is the administration's blueprint for the economy, which outlines a plan to "recover, rebalance and rebuild." Much like Obama's recent State of the Union address, it focuses heavily on income inequality, and building an America where "everyone gets a fair shot."
One way to do that is job creation. While 1.8 million jobs were created last year, the economy still needs to add about 5.6 million jobs to get back to 2008 employment levels -- and that's without accounting for population growth.[read more]

"Occupational Employment projections to 2022"
Monthly Labor Review, Bureau Labor Statistics, Department of Labor (Dec. 2013)
https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2013/article/occupational-employment-projections-to-2022.htm


Total employment in the U.S. economy is projected to grow by 15.6 million during the 2012–2022 decade to reach 161 million; this represents a 10.8-percent employment increase. Some of the fastest projected growth will occur in the healthcare, healthcare support, construction, and personal care fields. Together, these four occupational groups are expected to account for about one-third—more than 5.3 million—of all new jobs during this period.
Total employment in the U.S. economy is projected to grow to 161 million, or 10.8 percent, over the 2012–2022 decade and add 15.6 million jobs to the 2012 employment level of 145.4 million. Of the 818 occupations for which the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) produces and publishes projections data, 667 are projected to add jobs and 151 are expected to decline in employment during the 2012–2022 period. Some of the fastest projected growth will occur in the healthcare, healthcare support, construction, and personal care fields. Together, these four occupational groups are expected to account for more than 5.3 million new jobs by 2022, about one-third of the total employment growth.
Occupational projections provide information on how changes in demographics, technology, consumer preferences, and other factors are expected to affect the future labor force. Job seekers and career counselors use this information to see where the strongest or weakest growth is expected to be over the coming decade. Policymakers use the projections for long-term policy planning, and states use the data to prepare state and area projections.[read more]

"December Jobs: 1.8 Million jobs created in 2012"
JILL SCHLESINGER MONEYWATCH January 4, 2013, 4:27 PM
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/december-jobs-18-million-jobs-created-in-2012/

The December jobs report marked the 5th anniversary of the beginning of the "Great Recession", which makes now a good time to provide a snapshot of labor market progress. Beginning in December 2007 through December 2012, the U.S. economy shed a total of approximately 3.9 million jobs, of which the government accounted for a quarter and the private sector three-quarters. A devastating 8 million jobs were lost in 2008 and 2009, before the recovery created 4.7 million over the last three years. In other words, the job market has come a long way from the dark days of the Great Recession, but has a lot more ground to cover
For 2013, economists predict that average monthly job growth should increase only slightly to 165,000 and the annual average unemployment rate will be 7.7 percent. Expectations are muted due to the second phase of the so-called "fiscal cliff" negotiations, which will focus on focus on a reduction in government spending in order to address the nation's mushrooming $16 trillion debt burden.
It's important to underscore that when the government spends fewer dollars, it creates a negative impact on economic growth. J.P. Morgan chief U.S. economist Michael Feroli expects that fiscal cliff issues "will probably hold things back awhile." The extent of the damage depends entirely on the amount of reduction and the pace at which it will occur. Throughout the fiscal cliff debate, critics of tax increases and spending cuts worried that the dual effect would throw the country into another recession.[read more]
I get that the title of the last one refers to seasonal job but the quotes make clear not all the forcasts are seasonal,

According to these 2013 sources the economic condition we see today could easily be accounted for by the forecasts made in 2013 or even 2012. Long before Trump was running, Clearly the aritcle links at least a third of it to Obama;s policies.

Here i a 2017 article from a conservative source arguing that the big upturn is not due to Trump. Some aspects of it are affected by Trump but for the most part he has not had time to have a a major effect,

"The Trump Stockmarket Ralley: Don't Thank Trump"LARRY LIGHT MONEYWATCH November 10, 2017, 6:00 AM
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-stock-market-rally-dont-thank-trump/


When Donald Trump won the White House 12 months ago, the stock market took off. And the president often takes credit for that. In a recent tweet, he attributed the ongoing rally to "great confidence" in his administration's policies.
The truth, though, is that the president -- indeed, any president -- has only limited powers to affect the market, which is driven more by corporate earnings and economic forces.
"In the first few months" of Mr. Trump's presidency, said Garrett Oakley, a financial planner with online financial adviser Betterment, investors were excited about Mr. Trump's ambitious plans for tax cuts and huge public works projects. "But that became priced in," meaning the thrill faded after nothing happened and investors turned elsewhere for inspiration.
The rally predates the Trump presidencyIndeed, with a few hiccups, the market has been on an ascending trajectory since March 2009, at the outset of Barack Obama's administration, and the so-called "Trump bump" is the just latest leg upward. Stock valuations, as measured by the 12-month forward price-earnings multiple, have been "roughly constant for the past two years," said Nicholas Atkeson, a founding principal of Delta Asset Management. 
Oddly enough, Mr. Trump's lack of legislative success may have helped the market, said Jeffrey Sherman, deputy chief investment officer at DoubleLine Capital. In an interview with Yahoo Finance, he noted: "Markets don't like change. And for that I'll give the president credit that he really hasn't changed much thus far, at least when it comes to financial and fiscal policy." [read more]